♪ >> number one story on msnbc.com right now. arizona's border wars. we asked you at the top of the show what are you doing awake at this hour? our producer pete has some answers. pete? >> john writes i got up to watch the test pattern created by willie's tie and shirt. >> pat just asked me why i was wearing a tie. same thing i'm telling everybody. job interview. wish me luck. >> jordan writes the only thing sadder than ellen leaving "american idol" is if willie left "way too early"." >> no, pat buchanan is taking

over monday. pat, congratulations. i pass the torch to you. have fun waking up at 2:00 in the morning. "morning joe" starts right here. ♪ >> on the view, obama said he won't be going to chelsea clinton's wedding on saturday because, quote, you don't want two presidents at one wedding. hillary was like, yeah, we get it, you won, okay? big deal! >> the guest list is star-studded. the people that are at chelsea clinton's wedding, for example, lebron james. >> really? >> yep he has been invited and rsvp his invitation tomorrow night on espn with an hour-long special. >> good morning. i'm willie geist. joe and mika have the day off today. so i've called in plenty of reinforcements. let's go this way. mike barnicle? >> what is with the tie? >> do i need to explain it again? >> ellen degeneres leaves

and --? >> hello! there is an opening on "american idol"! pat buchanan is with us and mark halpern is with us. he wrote "game change." >> i invented the clip-on tie, for which you have benefited. >> and norah o'donnell is in the house. we have the white wedding tomorrow. chelsea, a big fancy deal up there. >> good thing mika is not here because she doesn't like to talk about the wedding? >> why? because it's frivolous? >> privacy. >> stop it! >> what do you figure the deal is on, apparently, the obamas not being invited or is there any deal? >> no deal. >> nah. >> it's a wedding for the bride and groom. >> okay. >> you think obama wanted to take his weekend off and come up to the wedding? >> a couple of good golf courses there. >> camping. >> thanks, but no thanks. robert gibbs is going to be joining us and eugene robinson,

israeli defense minute ehud barak will be with us here in the studio. breaking news overnight. it's grim. >> very grim. breaking news. three u.s. troops killed in afghanistan yesterday making july the deadliest month for american forces in the nearly nine-year war. nato officials say the troops died in two separate blasts in the southern part of the country. according to an associated press count that brings the u.s. death toll for the month to at least 63. june had been the deadliest month for the u.s. with 60 deaths and for the overall nato led force with 104 fatalities. meanwhile a new report on the increase in army suicides finds the military is failing its soldiers as they deal with repeated deployments to afghanistan and iraq. according to the army study, military commanders are so focused on preparing their troops for war, they are allowing them to engage in risky behavior back here at home like drug and alcohol abuse that may lead to suicide. the army counted 160 suicides last year, the highest total

ever. a senate report reveals as many as 6,600 graves may be unmarked or mislabeled at arlington national cemetery. a previous u.s. army estimate had the number at about 211. well, the cemetery's former superintendent who was forced to resign over the scandal blames human error and complicated paper trail for the massive oversight. >> mike, you pawl of these things together and it paints an ugly picket. we talked about last month, june, 60 dead. that was the worst month since the beginning of the war and it keeps getting worse. the worst month ever now. how long do the american people tolerate this? >> unfortunately, willie, the american people will tolerate it into the near future as far as the i can see because they don't have much of an investment in this war. the military families do. but this country we've said it repeatedly, the country is not at war. the american military is at war. and you're seeing now, off of norah's report, the fracturing

of the american military with three, four, five deployments. less than 1% of the american population with the ultimate investment in two wars. >> that is the thing, pat. not the ones who are coming home in coffins, it's the ones who are coming home with their lives broken going back three, four, five times. domestic abuse and all kinds of other things and suicide as norah reported. it's ugly. >> the ones coming home to walter reed and bethesda medical and all of that. i think resistance will be built inside the political realm of the congress of the united states after this december review. i think come january, february, beginning of the primaries, this is going to become a major issue. there is going to be some candidates who will fill this vacuum of leadership when the country basically is saying this war isn't worth it or let's get out now. >> mark, who is that person? ron paul from the republicans,

somebody like that? >> i think it's more up to the democratic party after the election. i think you'll see voices within the party. already you're hearing quietly leading democratic figures saying there needs to be a change and i think the president is open to change. i think anyone who thinks he is dog mattic or political about this misjudges him. >> norah, this comes on the heels of the wikileaks document the big story this week. i know they were talking about it yesterday. >> new gopts developments on nap. top military officials are speaking out against this week's release of more than 90,000 classified documents on the afghan war. secretary of defense robert gates and admiral mike mullen told the reporters the security breach is endangering lives. >> the battlefield consequences of the release of these documents are potentially severe and dangerous for our troops, our allies, and afghan partners,

and may well damage our relationships and reputation in that key part of the world. >> he can say whatever he likes about the greater good he thinks he and his source are doing. but the truth is they might already have on their hands the blood of some young soldier or that of an afghan family. >> pretty tough there from the chairman. and in his first interview since stepping down as the bp's ceo, tony hayward is responding. here is a portion of his remarks in this morning's "the wall street journal." he says -- does anybody feel sorry for tony

hayward? >> silence. silence. silence around the table. he gave another interview earlier this week. >> shut it down, tony. >> exactly. time to be quiet, right, pat? >> sure. that time was a long time ago, willie! >> you know, i became a villain for doing the right thing. he is the chairman of this company. that's what comes with being chairman or the ceo of the company, not the chairman, ceo. >> you get the feeling he is very happy to be out of the spotlight. >> go sailing. >> he is going to russia. >> siberia! send him there. >> personal brand management to work. >> well put. >> other big news. charlie rangel faces a rare public trial this fall after accused of 13 ethics violations. got to talk about this. a committee panel unveiled the charges yesterday when 11th hour settlement talks with rangel broke down. among the allegations are rangel's failure to properly

disclose more than 600,000 dollars in income and assets, improper use of a rent stabilized new york apartment for his campaign office, and failure to report rental income from a vacation property. rangel, himself, was not at yesterday's public reading. but seemed resigned to a trial. >> even though they are serious charges, i'm prepared to prove that the only thing i've ever had in my 50 years of public service is service. that's what i've done. and if i've been overzealous in providing that service, i can't make an excuse for serious violations but i can have an explanation of my intent. i survived a chinese attack in north korea and, as a result, i wrote a book that having

survived that, that haven't had a bad day since. today, i have to reassess that statement. thank you. >> and, yesterday, house speaker nancy pelosi also addressed charges by minority leader john boehner that she failed to clean up congress. >> i am going to comment on what we did do to drain the swamp. because let me describe the swamp. the swamp was described in the press as a criminal syndicate operating out of the republican leader's office. and what we did when we came in was to implement the toughest ethics reform in a generation. drain the swamp, we did, because this was a terrible place and we had made a tremendous difference and i take great pride in that. >> mark, we can talk about what speaker pelosi said in a second. are you surprised this got to this point with charlie rangel that some deal was not worked out before 1:00 yesterday? >> he's a proud man and he,

obviously, doesn't want his career to end with an acknowledgment of this long list of violations, charges against him. >> how strong was the heat from his fellow democrats to cut a teal? i mean, how much resistance did he overcome some. >> a lot. i think they are trying to give him a way out but it's such a long list and some of the charges are so egregious, they are real violations, the public trust. i have not found any democrat who thinks -- who is really truly giving him the benefit of the doubt. they think that he did these things and they think -- they would like to find -- he has so much goodwill amongst his colleagues that they don't want to force his hands. very few have called for him to go. >> the window is now closed. he had had an opportunity to negotiate a deal and republicans would have gone along with it. it's a 3-3 committee and they want a trial in september with charlie up there reading the charges and charlie answering them. the only way out for charlie and

the democrats now is charlie is going to have to resign from the house. that will abort the whole issue but they are still going to send a file, i think, over to the justice department. >> yeah. i mean, pelosi said yesterday, let the chips fall where they may politically but the democrats don't want this to become an issue in september, corruption. it speaks a lot about this is the chairman of the house ways and means committee tasked with writing the nation's tax laws and he is accused of not paying taxes on rental income. i mean, this is sort of 101 and i think that a lot of people will look at this, that he may have violated the public trust. i think is the way that certainly the ethics -- yeah? >> can i dissent to the fact the republicans were running a crime syndicate? >> i was getting to that. >> syndicate! >> it was interesting how she put it. >> where is denny hastert? >> not to defend what rangel is

accused of doing or anything, but i think the democrats have a lot bigger problems in the fall election than whether this trial is going on or not. find it hard to believe there is going to be a trial. it would be so painful for him personally, i think, they have to find a way. >> it's sad to see, though, how seniority and longevity in congress can cause someone to just lose their grip on reality as in they got -- let's cut a deal. >> right. >> i'm sorry as to what i did and let's continue and now we're at this point. it is sad. >> it is sad. >> it's an interesting point. a lot of people wonder if i'm a moderate democrat running in virginia, do my voters really care that charlie rangel is having trouble? >> i don't think so. >> no. >> you've seen more conservative democrats cut him loose and say if the charges are true, he should resign. i don't think anybody will be defending him but, again, republicans have a lot better things to talk about. >> you get all of that on television it does add to just get rid of those guys. that attitude, i think, and i think that's going to be

pervasive in the fall and charlie will help it. >> norah, i am grags probably a big issue in the fall? >> absolutely. it already is. the state of arizona is appealing a federal judge's ruling to block key parts of their immigration law. yesterday, republican governor jan brewer wasted no time going to court to fight back against what she calls a, quote, an invasion of illegal immigrants and led to demonstrations across the country yesterday including one in phoenix. where dozens were arrested -- >> send him in there with the flags. >> downtown jail. yeah. pat? >> sure. that's our group we sent in. >> we know where pat stands on this one. >> she is using the word invasion. they are moving around. >> what else you got, norah? >> former agriculture department shirley sherrod is planning to sue the blogger who posted a misleading video on her speech to the naacp back in march. yesterday, sherrod said andrew

brightbart had a clear motive when he released the footage. >> he had to know that he was targeting me. now, whether he was also trying to target the naacp, he had to know that he was targeting me, and, at this point, he hasn't apologized. i don't want it at this point. he'll definitely hear from me. >> just to follow-up on that, there have been reports you are considering a lawsuit. have you decided whether you're going to pursue that action? >> i will definitely do it. i will definitely do it. >> can i ask a question? if we all can sue people who think bad of us on the internet that aren't true, get dan abrams in here! i don't understand. what is the basis of the lawsuit? >> exactly. she excerpted a part of her public speech and put it on the internet. you're going to sue him?

a first amendment here. they got nothing. they got nothing. >> seems like an unserious libelus. >> he excerpted a tape. the naacp said this is a racist tape. they called for her firing. white house fired her. >> compare her to a calculator or anything. >> explain what you just said. >> if her proposed suit has any merit going down the road, he is going to have the entire class of yale law school representing him what they said about him! >> you are really savage. >> i'm going to sue! >> compared to a calculator. i didn't quite understand. something about you -- rephrase the arguments? >> it's going to be a long line, willie, if she wins this one, i'll tell you. >> all right. politico describes it at one of the most unusual political teams ever assembled. we go inside charlie crist's

senate campaign and the staff that is called a collection of misfits. a hot topic bill gets voted down in the house triggering a compassionate response in the house. look at anthony go! what got him fired up is coming up. later, the weekend review. find out which of these high quality stories will make "the final cut." first a check on the weekend forecast with bill karins. >> we get to see the soccer fishing thing again, don't we? that was the highlight of the whole week. good morning, everyone. the highlight of your week is weather. if you live from d.c. to richmond, up through new england through the great lakes, this is your reward for suffering through one of the hottest jules ever. it is a beautiful, clear, crisp morning with clear skies. it is going to be a gorgeous day today. we're still in the 80s in most locations but the humidity is just about very, very low. it's almost gone compared to yesterday. so enjoy a fabulous friday. the rest of the country, unfortunately, from atlanta to dallas through the gulf coast,

it is very hot and it's very steamy and that is not going to change. look at the temperatures in texas. saturday into sunday, we're easily going to be around a hundred in all locations and by sunday, maybe even up near 105! ridiculous. that's a look at your weekend forecast. you're watching "morning joe," brewed by vegas and starbucks. ♪ respectable recentable a vegetable ♪ ♪ tick tick yeah listen up, people, volkswagen is at it again

with their autobahn for all event. it ends soon. they got great prices. cars built for the autobahn. people are gonna be driving crazy in the jetta... ...the routan, and the cc. that cc is gorgeous. that jetta is awesome. my wife loves her new routan. and they all come with that carefree maintenance. scheduled maintenance included. we're not shopping for cars here, people. c'mon! well, i am now. that's kind of exciting. [ male announcer ] right now, get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. or get a great price on a certified pre-owned volkswagen. get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. i'm not a sit still kind of person. i'm adventurous and that just is who i am. for me, it's about the laughing and the joy of being in the moment. sporting events are exciting. you jump and cheer and shout. you can't ever repeat a playoff game. i use blueprint for my season tickets, so i will, in fact, have them paid off before i even go to the first game. with blueprint, i feel much more responsible in how i spend my money. with blueprint on her slate card, lisa designed a plan to save money on interest. does your credit card have blueprint?

and this one i'm taking to the house. the ice cream man is here! breyers all natural grasshopper pie. walmart's the only place you can get it. they love it when i take my work home with me. [ shaniya ] daddy i want more ice cream.

♪ >> i don't think it looked presidential. >> it's a move some are calling inappropriate. >> it's telling to go that he goes to cry on the shoulders of

sympathetic women of "the view." >> whatever happened to the majesty of the office? >> i think there has to be a little dignity to the presidency. >> what? he waited until star jones left the show! what more do you want from the guy? and, by the way, did you idiots have any short-term memory at all? >> spankers? did you spank him? >> not very often. >> not really. >> pat, that wasn't very majestic of president bush with dr. phil, was it? >> no, it wasn't. president bush didn't consult me a lot on these things. >> no, he didn't. not a fan. let's take a look at the morning papers. the arizona daily star. protests against and rallies for arizona's new immigration law went on as planned across the state yesterday. despite a ruling that blocked key provisions. >> "the boston globe" front page a story that won't go away for senator john kerry. yesterday, he acknowledged for the first time that he mishandled the political fallout

for questions about taxes on his new $7 million yacht but the senator insisted he always intended to pay the massachusetts tax. >> doesn't get any better than this, willie! what a morning! >> pat, he paid the taxes on his $7 million yacht. >> pat is glowing this morning! amazing! hartford courant. are cell phone laws having an impact on drivers' behavior? the police issued more than 1,100 cell phone violations. >> good. i'm with that. with us is mr. mike allen with politico with a look at the morning playbook. >> happy friday! >> happy friday to you, sir. let's talk about charlie crist where is running as an independent in florida and surrounding himself with staffers that run the gamut. >> this is a strategy of necessity not something he would choose. he has a real misfit collection

of staffers because when he left the republican party all of his strategists, pollsters and press people left him. now he has his older sister, margaret wood, who has never run a statewide campaign is in the role of campaign manager. but she's backed by some extremely experienced people, including, most notably, josh iseg, the head of skd knickerbockers new york office and someone who is a key strategist for senator schumer, one of the best known name in democrat politics and a fascinating connection to the obama white house. his partner is the president's former communications director and married to his counsel, bob bowers. so charlie didn't have the staff he wanted but he does have some tlept. >> what are the polls looking like down there in that race? >> he is still ahead. the press has no idea. reporters assume that mark rubio is going to win.

you ask a reporter on capitol hill and they will still tell you that. being independent and being none of the above is a pretty good place to be. >> mark halpern, is he going to win this race? >> i have thought from the day he did this he would be the front-runner. there chaos on the democratic side and not clear who their nominee is going to be but whoever it is is going to come out weak. i don't see how they stop charlie crist. i think people thought he would have to win with 33 to 5%. i think he can get up to 41% now. >> he is running well on the gulf oil spill and that stopped right now. he is not going to get that kind of publicity. secondly if that guy down there with the money wins the democratic primary puts a lot of money it nit will drain off the liberal left wing vote and that is what i think charlie is riding on to win this. >> i think you can go after green on a lot of stuff that will attract liberals and charlie crist has been always popular with the

african-americans. >> are they coming out for charlie after meeks is defeated? >> they will because he is defeated by the other democrat, not by charlie crist. the onus is on mark rubio. he has to find a way to go after crist and get more of the center of the electric because that is where charlie crist is so strong. rubio can still win but he has to have a second act. >> we were talking about mike allen as a rock star a few months ago. what happened since then? >> well, he still is among republicans and he is the template of the kind of republican that can win in an environment that increasingly is going to have bad demographics for republicans. he is hispanic, he is young, he can appeal to all types of conservatives. but he's had a number of bad press stories about him, including his use of the state republican credit card to repairs to his wife's minivan. he paid it back, but it looks shady when you add it in to the

fact that there was something erroneous, he says double billing of the state in the party for some fights. the kind of thing voters don't want to sort it out and voters say we don't want that from our guys. >> those minivans are evil! >> if the thing breaks down, a great deal! put a lot of wear and tear on it! >> get the party to fix it up for you! >> it helps to have that credit card. mike, we want to ask you a year ago this time, we were going through the summer of the town halls and now as congress gets ready for this year's summer recess, democrats and republican leaders getting their strategies together. what is it looking like? >> willie, we have the playbooks from both sides. speaker pelosi talked to politico's david rogers about what her people are going to be saying during august. they will try to make this legislation personal. they are not out there talking about reform packages. they are going to be talking about in the case of health care, patient's bill of rights. in the case of regulatory reform or wall street reform, they are going to be talking about consumer protection. on the republican side, they are being told to go out there

boldly at 22-page playbook for them has been posted by republicans on the web, including a retweet for everyday to get them in working in social media and they've got housework homework assignments. during recess, do five radio interviews, three three tv interviews, place an editorial. they are telling them to be out there and be assertive, including bashing president bush -- or president obama they say for coddling our enemies. >> mike, wait a minute. back up. they don't call it recess. what do they call it? >> district work period! >> get back in the district! >> get them all out! get them all out! >> there is also a fair amount of time set aside for yacht maintenance! >> and minivan maintenance, apparently. >> wind surf. >> mike, thanks so much. talk to you later in the show.

>> happy weekend. >> appreciate it. coming up next, white house press secretary robert gibbs will be joining us. plus, ellen, hear about this, pat? >> i'm shattered by what is happening! >> ellen delivers a bombshell about her future on "american idol"! overnight, details, complete team coverage when "morning joe" continues. [ animals calling ] ♪ [ pop ]

[ man ] ♪ well, we get along ♪ yeah, we really do - ♪ and there's nothing wrong - [ bird squawks ] ♪ with what i feel for you ♪ i could hang around till the leaves are brown and the summer's gone ♪ [ announcer ] when you're not worried about potential dangers, the world can be a far less threatening place. take the scary out of life with travelers insurance... and see the world in a different light.

build a car you're proud of. ♪ of course, winning's not bad either. the subaru forester. the most award-winning small suv. isn't it nice when honest virtues win ? and i'm joni. we've been best friends since we were two. we've always been alike.

we even both have osteoporosis. but we're active, especially when we vacation. so when i heard about reclast, the only once-a-year iv osteoporosis treatment, i called joni. my doctor said reclast helps re-strengthen our bones to help make them resistant to fracture and reclast is approved to help protect from fracture in more places: hips, spine, even other bones. (announcer) you should not take reclast if you're on zometa, have low blood calcium, kidney problems. or you're pregnant, plan to become pregnant or nursing. take calcium and vitamin d daily. tell your doctor if you develop severe muscle, bone or joint pain or if you have dental problems, as rarely, jaw problems have been reported. the most common side effects include flu-like symptoms, fever, muscle or joint pain, headache, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. nothing strengthens you like an old friendship. but when it comes to our bones, we both look to reclast. you've gotta ask your doctor! or call 866-51 reclast. year-long protection for on-the-go women.

♪ welcome back to "morning joe." just after 6:30 in the morning. i'm willie geist. joe and mika have the morning off. lucky for us, norah o'donnell is here. good morning. >> good morning, everybody. we got news to update you on. three u.s. troops were killed in afghanistan yesterday making this month the deadliest

for american forces in the nearly nine-year war. a nato statement says the soldiers died in two supra blasts in southern afghanistan. new york congressman mike mcmahon is in damage mode. mcmahon's finance director who is jewish says she was trying to showcase the mant of fbi agents contributions were coming from outside his district. she was fired over the incident yesterday. grim has slammed mcmahon for, quote, segregating people out by their religion. and ellen degeneres is leaving "american idol" after one season on the judging panel. she says this.

this morning, there are reports that singer jennifer lopez is close to signing a contract to take over degeneres position. >> pat, so much to sort through in this story. >> my correspondent. >> let's unpack this time line. >> do you know either jennifer lopez's nicknames, pat? >> j. lo. >> what is the other one? >> jenny from the block. >> if he had gotten that one -- >> pat, you just passed the test. we will leave you alone the rest of the morning. tim tebow, the most heralded rookie in the nfl, has signed a five-year, $11.25 million contract with the denver broncos. $8.7 of that is guaranteed. his jersey is already the league's best seller. he hasn't even played a game. our producer pete green was interesting in getting this

angle in. tebow signed a deal to be jockey's new official spokesperson. >> nice. >> that means you'll see a lot of team tebow in his underwear. >> where is the rest of the shot? >> we sanitized it. we shouldn't have. >> there is more to the shot, pete? >> he will do the whole marketing mark with the whole widening out. pete, you good? move on to games from last night. alex rodriguez still chasing his 600th home run. in the third inning against the indians last night bases were loaded and put a nice swing on one and we all got excited for a second and the center fielder camped out under it. a sac fly. a-rod hitting the ball but not out of the park. yankees beat the indians 11-4. if you need any evidence for how fans there in cleveland are feeling about lebron james these days, here it is. on wednesday night, a couple of nights ago, the cleveland indians game, this is a fan wearing the new lebron james miami heat jersey. he drew the ire of the crowd of progressive field out there in

the bleachers and they were chanting obscenities at him. the security had to escort him out just because he was ab noxiously wearing the jersey of the man that cleveland now hates more than any other. how about that? >> yeah. >> terrell owens making a first impression elsewhere in ohio with his new team. he was supposed to join the cincinnati bengals. he missed his flight! he eventually rolled in an hour before the late practice. when he did finally speak to the press, he compared hillself and teammate chad ochocinco to some of sports' other big duos. >> espn, you know, they running the dynamic due owe of me and chad and, you know, dwyane wade and lebron. so, you know, we've called ourselves batman and robin. i don't know. dude, it's all fun. so, you know, right now, i'm clark kent. >> he is clark kent. >> the glasses!

>> it works. t.o. and ochocinco on the same team is an awful lot of crazy. >> good luck to them. >> great fun for marvin lewis. will this be the year of the moderates? a new edition of the "morning joe" midterm exam is next. we will show you what sparked this emotional and passionate reaction on the house floor. >> yeah! >> from congressman anthony wiener of new york. can't wait to see what has got him so fired up! don't forget you can listen to "morning joe" live on satellite radio, sirius 90 and xm 120 are the channels. we will be right back. ♪ throw your love around love me love me take it in to town ♪ ♪ happy happy put it in the ground where the flowers grow ♪ [ whistling ]

[ dog barking ]

[ sniffing ] [ male announcer ] missing something? like 2 pairs of glasses for $99.99 at sears optical. now includes bifocals at the same great price for a limited time. hurry in to sears optical today and don't miss a thing.

♪ >> washington is obsessed with polls, so i can look historically and i can say my polls at this point are higher than they were -- than ronald reag reagan's polls were or higher than bill clinton's polls were or higher than jimmy carter's were. but the truth of the matter is that doesn't make too much difference because these things change very quickly. >> president obama on "the view" yesterday. it's time now for the "morning joe" midterm exam. today's topic is 2010 the year of the moderate? we sat down with our panel of experts, pat buchanan, eugene robinson, and chuck todd to break it all down. >> if the election were held today and i know everybody hates this, if the election were held today, pat buchanan, how many seats in the house would the republicans pick up? they need 39.

>> i'm not a huge optimist. i think they would pick up 34. >> that's actually where i am. i think right now, they are at 34 or 35 because the national organization hasn't shown strength in these specials. what do you think? >> 35 or 36. >> i'm still a believer in this. republicans either win them both or they don't win them both. they don't win either. they win both the house and the national. this thing goes to 45, 50 seats and ten in the senate or neither one happens. i'll tell you right now, these fund-raising numbers and house republican candidates are atrocious. i'm very surprised. you think money follows conventional wisdom. republican senate candidates are doing better on money than house republican candidates. it's a big problem at the end. >> i think the republican identification we've been talking about on "morning joe" a number of times, down as low as it is, i think that is becoming a bit of a drag. i mean, people don't want the democratic party to want to find a way to throw these guys out and keep looking over here and i

think -- >> you know what? >> behind me? >> joe, don't you think, to an extent, voters are at a loss right now and that it could be less predictable? >> i think they are at a loss right now and i agree with chuck. i always go back and it's my point of reference because it's the first time i ever followed an election really closely. but i always go back to what happened in 1980. i remember reading "time" magazine on friday saying it's a tossup between carter and reagan. and then over the weekend, i remember getting the news that jimmy carter and his wife cried on air force one saturday night after they saw the internal polls. i saw what happened in '94. chuck, you were covering it in '94. i walked up to -- i would be -- i won and got 62% and was shocked, it was supposed to be a 50/50 race.

on friday, the last poll showed 50/50. somebody shouted we took over the house! and i said you mean the senate? >> right. >> no, you took over the house. i said, we take over the senate! and somebody grabbed me and pointed to the nbc screen and we took over the house. i think you're right. i think that weekend, that final weekend. >> will tip it. >> either americans are going to say we don't trust the republicans but we loathe the democrats. >> i'll say this. one thing about be very careful of handicapping senate races in states where there is also governor's races going on and where there is competitive governor's races going on. i bring it up for this point. it is rare when you look at midterm, a competitive senate race will go in the opposite direction of the competitive governor's race. governors races drive turnout. senate races do not. we cover senate races as a national media. the public follows the governor's race in a local state. >> i just want to remind folks

when they are handicapping senate races look to see if there is a governor race also on the ballot? >> there is in california right now. let's talk about two senate races that should be safely democratic right now and may end up safely democratic. california and washington state. are patty murray and bosh rah boxer in trouble? >> you know, well, are they in trouble? i think they will both pull it out. i think they will both win, but these are closer races. >> why? >> than would have been expected. because of the economy. because -- look. look at the state of california. what mood would california voters be in? do you think? >> pat? >> let's follow the chuck todd rule. the governor's race in california is a big one. whitman has got all of that money and she is going to be driving and jerry brown has slipped a bit and run about even, i guess. if she runs very strong, boxer

has never run real strong. i think there's a real chance carly fiorina could win that. >> wow. >> barbara boxer running on the coattails in '94. in '98 riding on the coat did the tails. she never has won when the top of the ticket was not strong. jerry brown may win but he is not going to be strong. meg whitman is spending jillions here. >> never underestimate jerry brown in california. >> that, i don't. but i think barbara boxer, whether she likes it or not, her chances are so tied to jerry brown getting up off the mat. this guy is letting whitman define this race early. it's been one of the more poorly run -- i expected jerry to run a better race. >> i thought jerry brown was going to win this thing. >> he still might. >> he still might, given the state.

but, i mean, she has poured enormous amount of money in this and brown is not running a good race. >> great discussion. thanks to our panel. more "morning joe" when we come back. ♪ doing the best i can when it's time to leave i hope you'll understand ♪ ♪ that i was born a rambling man ♪ [ engine turns over ] [ armstrong ] in 20 years of cycling,

even when i was ahead, i was always behind. ♪ behind cars... behind trucks... behind those guys.. . tailpipe... [ clucking ] ...after tailpipe after tailpipe... [ engines rev ] ...until now. ♪ the 100% electric... no-tailpipe nissan leaf. innovation for the planet. innovation for all. ♪ a day once dawned ♪ ♪ and it was beautiful ♪ ♪ so, look, see the sights ♪ that you learned [ male announcer ] at&t covers 97% of all americans. at&t. rethink possible. buy a pantech messaging phone like the impact, and get a pantech messaging phone free after mail-in rebate.

and get a pantech messaging phone free wherever the game takes you, transitions is your best playing partner. transitions lenses adapt to changing light to help you stay comfortable and in the zone... in all light conditions. both on...and off the course. kenny perry and trevor immelman have made transitions part of their game. ask your eyecare professional today which transitions lenses are right for you.

long summer days, and not enough sleep. what i wouldn't do for a do-over. [ female announcer ] new neutrogena® clinical skincare. exclusive ion2 complex combined with activating cream helps restore collagen depleted skin. neutrogena clinical skincare is clinically tested to undo the look of a year's worth of skin aging in just 4 weeks. do-overs do exist. [ female announcer ] new clinical skincare. neutrogena. #1 dermatologist recommended brand.

♪ people are pounding them. >> it was another week of pretty heavy news. we've chosen, though, to focus on the completely inconsequential in our top three stories of the week. >> the 44th president of the united states, barack obama.

>> at number three, girl talk. >> look. i was trying to find a show that michelle actually watched. >> president obama sat down this week with the ladies of "the view" going against the advice of his long time trusted adviser pat buchanan. >> why not go up there on the stage with lady gaga. >> in what was described by the host at least as an historic event the president faced the semicircular firing squad of whoopi, babs, joy, sherry and hasselbeck. >> what is the first couple of songs on your ipod? >> does mel gibson need anger management? >> do you tweet? >> should snooky run of mayor of wadsilla? >> the president displayed a firm grasp of the issues that affect the americans most. >> do you know that lindsay lohan is in jail? >> i actually know that, yes. >> at number two. the greatest celebration in the

history of organized human games. in a week when the nfl's two best celebrators joined forces in cincinnati a soccer team in iceland set a new goal standard. everyone's favorite icelandic soccer star playing for everyone's favorite icelandic soccer club scored on a penalty kick setting off a choreographed fishing theme celebration that began with bjornson cast is hig line for a big one and ended with the team taking a group photo with his catch. the number one story of the week. they are back. >> you can't get a tan in this weather. you can't creep in this weather. you can't do anything. >> you're too tan. sdust disgusting! >> i like being tan. >> the bronzer has lost on my face. >> i feel like a pilgrim from the frigin' '20s. >> you want to go outside, go outside! >> grenades, that is a bigger ugly chick and then land mines

which is a thin ugly chick. >> "jersey shore" returned for a second season of gem tanning and laundry but the showityself was merely the cherry on top of a whirlwind week where the cast rang the opening bell at the new york stock exchange, where "newsweek" dubbed the gang as america's new icons. >> actually, no. i'll put you in the same category. >> actually, i think you should [ bleep ] your mouth. >> where the show became a topic of morning political talk. >> we don't have enough problems in new jersey? i need snooky in the situation? i got enough problems. >> in a week where snooky was profiled in "the new york times" and, indeed, mentioned by the president of the united states. >> somebody asked me who snooky was. i said i don't know who snooky is. >> with leaked documents about the afghanistan war, a fight over immigration law in arizona, and an anxious nation awaiting the fate of its hero and spiritual leader in chicago, "jersey shore" was just the bronze brawling tonic that

america needed. >> obama put a 10% tax on tanning. i feel he did that intentionally for us. you can never put a 10% tax on tanning. >> can never do that. here come the kids from the "jersey shore" we will be just fine. robert gibbs joins u.s. in the next hour. and sam stein when "morning joe" comes right back. ♪ listen up, people, volkswagen is at it again with their autobahn for all event. it ends soon. they got great prices. cars built for the autobahn. people are gonna be driving crazy in the jetta... ...the routan, and the cc. that cc is gorgeous. that jetta is awesome. my wife loves her new routan. and they all come with that carefree maintenance.

scheduled maintenance included. we're not shopping for cars here, people. c'mon! well, i am now. that's kind of exciting. [ male announcer ] right now, get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. or get a great price on a certified pre-owned volkswagen. get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. i'm from the gulf coast. my family spends a lot of time here. i have a personal interest in ensuring that we get this job done right. i'm keith seilhan. i'm in charge of bp's clean up on the gulf coast. bp's taken full responsibility for the clean up,

and that includes keeping you informed. over 25,000 people are included in the clean up operation. our crews are cleaning the gulf beaches 24/7. we're going to be here as long as it takes to make this right. st: switching to geico did the little piggy cry wee wee wee all the way home? . . piggy: yeah? mom: you're home. piggy: oh,cool, thanks mrs. a. anncr: geico. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more.

squad president, although that is not to say there were not a few technical hiccups. >> from the home page, i choose my state. then answer a few more questions. >> the vice president on the old instant messaging system again. welcome to "morning joe." it's 7:00 in the morning here in new york city. i'll willie geist. joe and mika have the morning off. mike barnicle is here with me at the table. the great pat buchanan joins us, once again. mark halpern, the author of "game change."

and norah o'donnell is with us as well. joining us in washington is the political reporter for the huffington post is mr. sam stein and writes about barack obama's stance on polls. still spends millions on public opinion polls. we will get to that and talk to sam in a second. we are going to get a report from chicago in our next hour here. what is going on with the blago verdict? what is taking so long in the jury got the case on wednesday. this is, obviously, an innocent man. what is the holdup? >> clearly the jury not having him innocent if all charges must be in it for the good food they serve to the jury. if the jury is not sequestered we have an opportunity in the next couple of hours to taint the jury pool, free blago, get him out of there. >> our position is clear on this. he is an innocent man, an american hero and should walk free today.

>> they are trying to figure out if anything should be paid to him from the treasury pain and suffering. >> we only need to get to one of the jurors. >> you always taught me that, pat, actually. norah, we have a little more serious news here. let's get into it. >> the house has rejected a bill that would have provided more than $7 billion in aid for grounds zero responders who fell ill after the 9/11 attacks. the measure would have granted free health care and compensation payments to rescue workers who became sick after working in the world trade center routines but yesterday failed to win the majority it needed to bring it tho the house floor and opponents say it amounted to a big entitlement program that woo have led to potential job losses and increased work taxes. anthony wiener lashed out at the gop for not supporting the plan. >> we see it in the united states senate every single day where members say, we want aemeds and we want debate and aemeds but still a know. then we stand up and say if only

we had a different process we would vote yes. you vote yes if you believe yes! you vote in favor for something if you believe it's the right thing. if you believe it's the wrong thing you vote no. we are following up procedure. i will not yield to the gentleman! the gentleman will be in regular order! it is a shame! a shame! if you believe this is a bad idea to provide health care, then vote no! but don't give me the cowardly view that, oh, if it is it was a different procedure! the gentleman will observe regular order and sit down! instead of standing up and defending your colleagues on voting no on this humane bill you should urge them to vote yes! something the gentleman has not done! >> wow. obviously, a hugely emotional issue in new york and for congressman anthony wiener about the first responders to 9/11. mark halpern, it's kind of a procedural question, i guess, is what he was arguing against republicans. >> the democrats were bringing up the bill in a way that would

require two-thirds vote rather than a majority and they needed a lot of republican votes they didn't get. a lot of anger not just from anthony wiener. a tough statement from michael bloomberg, the mayor of new york. and, you know, you can point fingers at both sides but it does show that right now, in barack obama's washington, bipartisan cooperation on anything, even things like unemployment and helping first responders of 9/11 is very hard to achieve. >> on the face of it, this seems like an obvious one. >> you know, it gets to something, though, that is really important, i think, culturally and it is that september 11th, we all know about september 11th. you go out in the country' talk about september 11th it's as if you are talking about the civil war. it's so far in the past for so many people. sadly enough. that the sense of urgency, the sense of, you know, what can we do to, you know, to help these people. >> red hot character is right here in the new york metropolitan area. down to texas, they say 9/11, they brought down the buildings, that was terrible it. the intensity and the emotion is

here. but on the republicans on the unemployment thing what the republicans are doing is holding the line on that saying, look, we're going to pay for it -- we're for it but we got to pay for it. we can't borrow for from the chinese to give unemployment compensation to americans. republicans are taking the line i'm for it but we got to pay for it and i think they think it's working otherwise they would not stick with it as hard as they are. >> seems like the wrong issue to make a principle stand up. >> i don't think this is -- i don't think this is let's pay for it, is it? this is two-thirds thing. >> procedural. they want to be able to bring up other -- >> people out in the country may have forgotten about it but for the guys who responded to this thing and that day and many have died from the health problems. this is on top of mind for a lot of people. anthony wiener fired up yesterday. norah? >> no doubt. other bad news. learning this morning that three u.s. troops were killed in afghanistan yesterday. making july the deadliest month for american forces in the nearly nine-year war.

nato officials say the troops died in two separate blasts in the southern part of the country. according to an associated press count that brings the u.s. death toll for the month to at least 63. june had been the deadliest month for the u.s. with 60 deaths and for the overall nato led force with 104 fatalities. meanwhile a new report on the increase in army suicides finds the military is failing its soldiers as they deal with repeated deployments to afghanistan and iraq. according to the army study, military commanders are so focused on preparing their troops for war, they are allowing them to engage in risky behavior at home like drug and alcohol abuse that may lead to suicide. the army counted 160 suicides last year, the highest total ever. a senate report reveals as many as 6,600 graves may be unmarked or mislabeled at arlington national cemetery. a previous u.s. army estimate had the number at 211. the cemetery's former superintendent who was forced to resign over the scandal blames

human error and a complicated paper trail for the massive oversight. >> sam stein, you covered the white house very closely obviously. you put all of these stories together with the wikileaks story from earlier in the week. not a good week for a white house that is looking to escalate, in effect, put more troops into afghanistan. >> yeah, no. i mean, the bad news just doesn't end. but i think it sort of gets to what you were talking about with the weighty 9/11 issue that there is saens of fatigue essentially about this war. you look at the polling numbers and everyone or the mant of people seem to be very concerned about it and you look at the wikileaks story and confirms that skepticism. you see a lot of concern going over the documents and yet we continue down the path and passed more money for the war in the house and the congress. there doesn't seem to be any sense of end to the conflict. i wonder if there is fatigue about afghanistan as well as 9/11. >> well, let me ask you, sam, on that. >> sure. >> clearly, 9/11 is almost ten

years ago but i think there's a real focus now on the 60 dead in june and the 63. >> yeah. >> do you sense a rising awareness in the country or in washington of the afghanistan war which was, for a while, the forgotten war? >> sure. >> but, i mean, it just it seems to me there is much more focus on it and increasing focus upon it. >> yeah. if you look at the vote tallies, house democrats, far more now than three or four months ago are willing to vote against just an open-ended check on this. they want either a timetable for withdrawal or some of them want a straight pullout. i think there's a lot of concern, obviously, going into the election what is happening there. i don't think it's a top concern for voters but lawmakers are beginning to express skepticism. i have to say vice president biden, what was disconcerting for some people i talked to was the vice president was defending the war we have to go after al qaeda and few people noted to me it was the vice president who, in private strategy sessions when they are talking about the

surge, this was reported in "newsweek," he was the one who said al qaeda isn't in afghanistan, it's in pakistan and he used that as a reason to suggest that maybe we shouldn't be devoting 30,000, 40,000 more troops to afghanistan. so, obviously, the salesmanship needs to be tighter from the white house because you are losing house democrats here. i don't think it's going to be enough to change the course of the war, though. >> sam, i have no sense of the depth of commitment that the white house has to the war in afghanistan. so after the recess, when congress returns, nancy pelosi, coming from a very activist district? san francisco, she is going to hear about afghanistan when she goes home. >> sure. >> john kerry, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, he might have an idea of how to get the boat and the taxes that he didn't pay on the boat off the front page by having hearings on afghanistan. what are the odds of those things building up to the point where there are hearings, where there is more discussion and more debate on this war within the congress? >> it's a good question.

i mean,, obviously, everyone is waiting for july 2011 to come. that's when you're going to start the phased withdrawal. whatever that means. no one is sure how many troops are going to come out. there is estimates of 3,000 and i know nancy pelosi told the huffington post in an interview a while ago there is more and see an actual withdraw. but i am of the belief that if you're going to talk about afghanistan it's going to be in the months prior to the november election. once that happens, it will probably be even further down on the back burner. i might be wrong. there could be hearings. although you saw "the washington post" series on top secret america and saw with the wikileaks there is evidence there to start actually having a real substantive comprehensive conversation about this stuff. we're just waiting for the attention to be there and waiting for congress to do it. and who knows what will happen in the next year, but i think everyone is holding their breath for july 2011. >> we are going to get one other spurt of debate on this topic before the election which i think is bob woodward's book. hasn't been much reporting on

what it is but my understanding a lot of focus is on the decision making about afghanistan. i think there is going to be news in there that will cause people look anew whether the president or the pentagon is driving this policy. >> pat, we can talk all we want about the deadliest month in the nine-year history of this war, about the suicides, about the horrors at arlington, the fact of the matter is congress just approved $60 billion fresh dollars for the war. >> they did. they did. but you can clearly see there is really uneasiness in the democratic party. i think 115 votes up from 30. there is an awful lot of folks, my guess is in the democratic party, who voted for this who probably are telling the white house, look. you can't keep coming back to this well. i mean, when you have half the country or more is against this war or wants to come home, that is enormous vacuum in national politics. those vacuums are ultimately filled by somebody the way -- you know, for example gene mccarthy stepped in to fill it in 1968.

>> that's when the country thinks about the war at all. just two seconds here. in a few days, the little league world series begins in willia williamsport, pennsylvania. marine lance corporal howard 21 years of age from williamsport, killed in action in afghanistan. that is minus the casualty count you just eluded to in your news report. >> oh, my goodness. all right. another story the white house is watching closely is what happened in new york. charlie rangel who faces a rare public trial this fall after being accused of 13 ethics violations. the committee panel unveiled the charges yesterday when 11th hour settlement talks with rangel's lawyers broke down. among the allegations are rangel's failure to properly disclose more than 600,000 dollars in income and assets, improper use of a rent stabilized new york apartment for his campaign office, and failure to report rental income from a vacation property. rangel himself was not at yesterday's public hearing but

seemed resigned to a trial. >> even though they are serious charges, i'm prepared to prove that the only thing i've ever had in my 50 years of public service is service. that's what i've done. and if i've been overzealous in providing that service, i can't make an excuse for serious violations, but i can have an explanation of my intent. i survived a chinese attack in north korea and, as a result, i wrote a book that having survived that, that i haven't had a bad day since. today, i have to reassess that statement. thank you. >> and, yesterday, house speaker nancy pelosi also addressed charges by minority leader john boehner that she failed to clean up congress. >> i am going to comment on what

we did do to drain the swamp. because let me describe the swamp. the swamp was described in the press as a criminal syndicate operating out of the republican leader's office. and what we did when we came in was to implement the toughest ethics reform in a generation. drain the swamp, we did, because this was a terrible place and we had made a tremendous difference and i take great pride in that. >> sam, i know it was you would used the phrase criminal syndicate out of the office. i don't remember if it was you or pat buchanan. >> copyright infringement right there. >> this does complicate democrats efforts to hold on to the house. will it matter? >> i mean, yes and no. obviously, you can see this is one isolated incident but then there is others. then you could say there is others on the republican side of

the yard but those are the senate. just as to underscore how sad a fall this is. i was on harlem in 2006 interviewing political officials up there. we awed talked a lot about charlie rangel. i talked to a bunch of people about, you know, what they expected charlie to do whether he was going to stay on because he is already getting up in age. they basically said the chairman of the house ways and means committee that is the fountain of youth and he will be there for forever and no way charlie is going anywhere. i can't think about running a seat was generally the line. now you have it four years later. he is in ethical tatters. it's sad and it shows that power corrupts pretty much absolutely. >> is he going to have to step down in order to avoid a public trial, embarrassing trial? >> it's tough to say and it would be presumptuous to show. obviously, it looks like this is going to trial. i don't know if they will cop a deal. democrats want this off the front page. you have a democrat from new

hampshire is running for senate when has now called for charlie to step down essentially. if you have political candidates running in tight races doing that you know the tide of public opinion is against you. >> sam, sit tight. >> i will. >> we want to get to your great report on the amount of money being spent on polls there for democrats and the white house. >> it's time. >> nbc's john yang is covering the rod blagojevich trial for us in chicago. thanks for calling in in this early hour in chicago. it's so plain for us to see he is an innocent man from here. what is taking the jury so long? >> there's a tribune column ust, columnist who refers to him as dead meat. >> oh! >> he called him dead meat from the day he was arrested. it's interesting. this jury, they sent a note out yesterday. they wanted the prosecution's -- transcript of the prosecution's

closing argument which i thought was pretty telling because the prosecution had a very detailed road map to the indictment and all of the evidence that they thought proved their case, proved the indictment. the judge said no, because it's not evidence. he wasn't going to give it to them. but he also speculated that this is an indication they are having trouble getting their head around this rather complicated 24-count indictment and he said that if they ask again, he might reconsider. so this jury is going to go back in about three hours to start their second full day. you know, there are a couple of jurors who are sort of of interest to me. one is a public school math teacher, so you got to think she has a low tolerance for lame excuses? she probably has heard a lot of that. there is another one. a young man who works at a best buy, he's applied for college this fall. he says he likes to play sports

and video games and hang out with his friends. jury selection, he said he couldn't recall having heard a single word about this case. >> he's our guy, john! he's our guy! listen, you indicated it's three hours before the jury returns for deliberations. in these three next hours, could we get the caterer for the juror? because willie and i, that's how to get to them and we want to double up on the best buy guy who has heard nothing about this trial! >> john yang, keep us posted, if you will. we're sitting on pins and needles! we look forward to rod blagojevich's celebration later tonight at a steak house in chicago celebrating his freedom at long last. john yang, thanks so much. >> see you guys later. coming up next, white house press secretary robert gibbs right here on "morning joe." first, a check on the weekend

forecast with bill karins. hey, bill. >> good morning, willie. or should i call you gq willie today? looking good. watching a change in the forecast. fantastic in some areas. first half of the summer was hot. you know how hots it's been but now as we go through this weekend, things are much different out there. what we're watching for the most part is the cooler air has settled down over the great lakes and now into new england and that is a welcomed relief this morning from philly to d.c. up into boston. how does your weekend look? we're going to call for a pretty nice one from d.c. to boston today. atlanta to dallas, though, watch what happens. the temperatures begin to soar. we are going to be 100 in dallas on saturday. still relatively cool up in new england and the great lakes. so enjoy your change of pace, but the southern half of this country this weekend, the heat wave is going to get worse, if anything else. we will have dangerous heat warnings by the time we get to sunday in the middle of our country. so this incredible july we're talking hottest temperatures in

new york city, baltimore and richmond. you're watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. ♪ little pink houses for you and me ♪ ♪ oh, baby for you and me

♪ we decided to go and restructure the auto industry. there were a lot of complaints out there. why are we bailing out the car company? we've been bailing them out for years before that, just asking nothing in return. we finally said you restructure. as a consequence, gm and chrysler did not go through liquidation. you now have all of those u.s. auto companies showing a profit. they have rehired 55,000 workers. we are going to get all of the money back that we invested in those car companies. ♪ stand my ground >> we will talk to robert gibbs

how the auto industry is doing in a moment. we go live to the white house with nbc political director chuck todd and host of "the daily rundown." you were on the show from washington yesterday and i saw you here six hours later and now you're back there. i can't keep up. >> you know the beauty of commuting doing the d.c. to new york commute? you do five hours of meeting in new york and five hours of travel time like laguardia in the summertime. got to love it. >> get on the amtrak. >> you can't get miles. sucker for miles. >> you want to get the free gifts. get to you in a second. sam stein is with us in washington. sam, you're reporting about just how much polling this white house has done, the white house has plained about polls and heard the president talking about it on "the view" yesterday. who pays attention to the polls but walk us through some of these numbers, sam. >> yeah, we looked through

filings that had been up to june 6, 2006, 18 months into the administration. they may not pay attention to polls but they are producing them. 4.45 million dollars spent on polling services in that 18 months. compare that to the best comparison was to the rnc under bush during his first two years in office, 1.3 million. rnc from 2005 to 2006 was 1.2 million. the question is of course, what does the white house do with the data? does it guide their decisions? how much so? you can make the argument that the president has gone against the poll and big items afghanistan and health care towards the end when it became much more unpopular but how much do his advisers pay attention to the numbers? my reporting hit a wall at that point and i would like to know what they used the numbers for. it's a fair amount of money to spend on polling especially from a white house what disstains and mocks about the polling obsessed. >> we hear it all the time. they call us.

you guys with your polls looking at them every day and every day is election day. if you believe sam's reporting and i do. >> thank you. >> looks like they are doing an awful lot it of. >> they are. this is one of those anecdotes a lot of us covered both whis particularly the political shops the last three white houses know the consumer polling data frankly that both were but they went a bit in different ways. karl rove held meetings i think twice a month meetings with republican polsters who brought gh their own data so how he was consuming data. didn't do as much of his own. this white house, particularly david axelrod is a huge consumer of polling but trusts his own pollster there and likes to get his own data and doesn't like to necessarily consume other data. the question is how do they use it? look. the president himself isn't a big consumer. the guy is not really a political junky the way bill clinton was. you don't ever hear stories that barack obama wants to know what

is going on in the arkansas senate and what is the primary like when the primary was hot? not the case with bill clinton. even president bush a little more interested in some of the horse race stuff of other ones. so the person that really consumes this data in this white house is david axelrod. he is sort of message guy. the other consumer of data is rahm emanuel but he is one of those more like rove. he wants to hear about everybody's polling. he is always reaching out, always trying to hear about other data that is out there. not just necessarily the data that the dnc is buying. >> most of the public polling has not been great for the democrats of late. a few bright spots on health care. but if you look at charlie cook and other people that rate the races, people saying more trending towards a big republican year. this is hard to answer but as you deal with obama political people what is your sense behind the poker face in their own data? are they seeing this as improving for them or getting worse, or status quo for the midterms? >> funny you say this. i've looked at a lot of private dat at past couple of weeks and

this is from both parties. and there has been a small trend and it's this. democrat, independents, and some sort of casual democrats appear to be, quote/unquote, coming home because if you noticed around the country in some of these tighter races, mark, there has been a closing of the gap. now the reason you're not hearing folks around here or on capitol hill jumping up and down is because it's just that. some democrats coming home. what they are still not seeing is any movement, any improvement with seniors and with the working class blue collar white vote which, right now, is sitting in either undecided or leaning toward the republicans and that is why -- that's why there's a lot of nervousness and why you see the president doing what he is doing today trying to go back to michigan. think about how many times he has been to the, quote, heartland in the last couple of weeks. and that is why i'm hearing from house democrats that the requests for not only bill clinton, but for joe biden to come into their districts, they are begging to get more time

with the vice president because they need to talk to those blue collar white voters because they are the ones sitting there that will decide who is in the majority in november. >> chuck todd, thanks so much. >> all right. guys. >> see you later on the daily rundown after the show with your guest barney frank. >> barney frank, baby. >> see you, chuck. when we come back, white house press secretary robert gibbs will be here. we will be right back. ♪ listen up, people, volkswagen is at it again

with their autobahn for all event. it ends soon. they got great prices. cars built for the autobahn. people are gonna be driving crazy in the jetta... ...the routan, and the cc. that cc is gorgeous. that jetta is awesome. my wife loves her new routan. and they all come with that carefree maintenance. scheduled maintenance included. we're not shopping for cars here, people. c'mon! well, i am now. that's kind of exciting. [ male announcer ] right now, get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. or get a great price on a certified pre-owned volkswagen.

♪ i have a blackberry but only ten people have it and i've got to admit, it's no fun, because. >> yeah. >> they think it's probably subject to the presidential record acts so nobody wants to send me the real juicy stuff. it's all very official. >> sounds awful. the president will be in detroit today to tour gm and chrysler plants. joining us to tell us where the auto industry stands now with

the obama administration, white house press secretary robert gibbs. good morning, robert! >> good morning, willie. how are you? >> i'm doing great. i hope you're one of the ten people that has that blackberry address for president. >> i do and i can tell you we only send him boring stuff. >> you don't send what i get from mike barnicle that i immediately have to race before it flashes on the computer? >> i can only imagine there is a spam filter that almost anything mike barnicle sends you. >> we need a barnicle filter. >> i really don't want in 15 years the national archivists going through and realize mike barnicle is sending me exactly what he is sending you! >> you're a wise man. you're a wise man. put your security on high for nap let's talk about the auto industry. you guys are doubting some of the numbers, the recovery of american auto standpoints companies. what do the americans look like and how do you keep it up? >> tough decisions had to be made a year and a half ago about the auto industry.

we are looking at an auto industry for the first time since 2004 the big three are all all reporting operating profits and we're adding jobs for the first time in more than a decade. the president is going to talk about that good news story today in detroit where they are adding shifts, they are working through the summer shutdown, and we're making real progress. >> mark halpern is with us, robert. >> robert, you all feel, i think, under -- safe to say underappreciated for this effort as some of your other efforts on jobs. i know it's a question you get all the time but why do you think it is tha republicans don't support what you've done and the people in michigan aren't necessarily appreciative of what you've done? >> well, mark, i think today's example is a good one. i think when people get a look at the full story, i think they will take a second look at some of the decisions that were made. again, we made an investment in the auto industry. it saved a million people's jobs. we now have an auto industry, as i said, that is adding jobs, not shedding jobs, which is what

those in michigan and throughout the midwest had become accustomed to. i think if people get the whole story, they will make a better -- a decision on the decisions we made. >> hey, robert, it's norah o'donnell. good morning to you. >> norah, hour how are you? >> good. >> let me ask you about charlie rang rangel. the ethics committee threw the book at him with 13 different counts. does the president think he should step down? >> is there a bipartisan process as you know up in the house to look into very serious charges. we think that's the best way to do this. we won't prejudge that outcome. we think that's the process that should move forward. >> the president is not concerned about the way this looks? >> well, look. obviously, as i said, there are serious charges and they should be investigated as they are by both republicans and democrats. and we'll let that process play. >> robert, i want to turn the page a little bit to afghanistan. we got some troubling numbers

overnight. 63 american troops dead in july making it the deadliest month for our troops since that war began. bad numbers about suicides. you had the wikileaks information coming out. do you feel a certain momentum building in the country against the afghanistan war and how do you square that with your efforts there to add more troops? >> well, look, willie, i don't doubt that after almost ten years, the american people are frustrated with the troop deployments that we've had to make. obviously the report on suicides is alarming and we're working and doing everything we can to make sure that our soldiers get the services they need both in theater and when they come home. we are in afghanistan because on september 11th, a safe haven in afghanistan plotted and executed horrific attacks on this country. there are going to be some very tough days ahead. no doubt, our heart goes out to those who have sacrificed their

loved ones on behalf of keeping all of us safe. >> robert, pat buchanan here. >> hi, pat. >> yesterday, the vice president said that i don't believe so when asked whether there is going to be any larger commitment to afghanistan than the hundred thousand that are on the way or are already there. have we off the top of my head out at -- have we topped out at 100,000 and going any higher no matter what the conditions are on the ground? >> well, look. as you know, pat, there was an extensive review of our strategy. i think it's safe to say for seven years we did not dedicate the type of resources and manpower in our soldiers that was needed in afghanistan. the president added 47,000 troops over the past year. those troops are almost all in. we'll evaluate our strategy in december, but in july of 2011, pat, we're going to start transitioning out of afghanistan, passing control of

the country to afghan national security forces. >> all right. robert gibbs, we know you have to get off to your next interview. thanks so much for taking time with us and i will give you barnicle's private e-mails. >> wait until you see the e-mail i just shot you, robert. you'll love it. >> i can only imagine. willie, a great announcement that i am leaving after a year and a half to take tough questions to be a judge on "american idol." >> we appreciate you announcing it here. >> i hope no discernible music talent is held against me. >> it hasn't stopped any of the other judges. robert, thanks so much. appreciate it. when we come back, a preview of "meet the press" with moderator david gregory. also "the washington post" eugene robinson joins the conversation. we will be right back on "morning joe." ♪ [ whistling ]

[ dog barking ] [ sniffing ] [ male announcer ] missing something? like 2 pairs of glasses for $99.99 at sears optical. now includes bifocals at the same great price for a limited time. hurry in to sears optical today and don't miss a thing. you must really care about him. what? you gave him fiber. this tastes way too good to be fiber. they're delicious crunchy clusters with sweet honey and half a day's worth of fiber. you care about my fiber? not really. [ male announcer ] fiber one.

♪ mr. assange can may anything he likes about the greater good he thinks he and his source are doing, but the truth is they might already have on their hands the blood of some young soldier or that of an afghan family. >> with us from washington the moderator of "meet the press," david gregory and also with us is associated editor for "the washington post" eugene robinson in his new column today, he writes the recent court ruling on arizona immigration la su good for republicans. gene, get to your column in a

moment. david, i know you have admiral mullen on as your guest on sunday. what is the first thing you want to know from him? >> well, as our lead news maker guest i want him to go further and explain what information the government has about what compromises, what danger u.s. troops or afghan nationals who have worked with the u.s. military are in. as a result of this league and what they fear from additional leaks that may be coming and what leverage they have to try to keep these documents secret. i think there is a broader discussion to be had. as much anger within the administration about the secret war documents, it's the war strategy that i think people are still concerned about, have a lot of questions about. i mean, look. it boils down what is it we're doing over there exactly after this long even with the surge, whether this is the right strategy. that, i think, is what is bubbling up, because there were not revelations in these documents, but an up-close look, maybe an unvarnished look, if you want to call it that, at how difficult this effort is. >> hey, david, that's a

substantive look at, you know, a critical component of our lives, afghanistan, the war in afghanistan. i would assume -- i might be wrong -- the latter half of the program, are you going to have blago on to talk about something? david? >> well, you know, mike, it's because we have to split it between that, of course, and our live coverage of the clinton after-party from the wedding. so all of these things to balance. >> that's good. >> he is not the show of record for nothing. >> that's good. >> gene, let's turn to you and your column today. you say this immigration fight and the decision by the federal court is a gift to republicans. why do you say that? >> well, you know, first of all, on the substance, i think the ruling is absolutely right. i think it was a terrible, the arizona law is a terrible law and i'm happy to see both provisions of it struck down,

but just politically speaking, poll after poll that shows most of the american people agree with the arizona law as originally written and i think this is going to provide more kind of passion and fire for the tea party crowd, for republicans in general, and i think it's going to be awkward for democrats to talk about this issue as we go into the fall. >> mark? >> hey, willie, can i add to that? i think that's and important point politically. larger than immigration, it's about role of government, what is it that government should be doing? and that is really the big debate right now. i think in the country and in our politics is whether government is the answer. >> right. >> or government is the problem. and we see this extending to the economy. also on program is governor mike bloomberg and ed rendell and alan greenspan will get into that conversation. i think it's an animated force

politically. >> guys, a big issue -- >> i would agree, david. and i think that one thing this decision does is it plays into the conservative narrative, the tea party narrative, if you will, but a whole a lot of conservatives, too. you have the big federal government kind of jumping in and telling the state of arizona that it can't do what it thinks it needs to do to protect its sits citizens. i think that's the narrative we will hear from that side. >> big issue in politics always right track, wrong track. afghanistan, you can't say it's on the right track now, at least in the public's mood. david you're dealing with the economy another issue where people, obviously, feel the country is not headed in the right direction. do you see anything out there that democrats can talk about and they can say, hey, things aren't great but we're at least head inside the right direction? >> you know as well as anybody right track and wrong track is a good way to measure the independent vote in this country. if this was a presidential election i think democrats would

be even more concerned. i think the trick, though, because a lot of people on the left who are disappointed with the president what he ought to be talking about whether it's the success of the auto bailout which he'll talk about today, whether it's mitigating some of the damage on the economy, the achievement of financial reform and health care reform, he has to try to animate the base here and try to match that enthusiasm level that's on the right if they are going to mitigate, which is probably the best goal they have, to some of the damage in the fall and hold on to the house. >> pat some. >> gene, i think you're dead right about this helping the republicans. the focus on this issue. but i'd ask both of you. it seems to me what we got going on here and rising is the debate, the old states rights republicans versus the federal government at a time when the federal government is really deeply unpopular on issue after issue. >> uh-huh. no, that's true. and it's ironic in many ways. we talked about this in the past, pat. have you those rallies with

people out, you know, saying that, you know, they hate the federal government and they can't do anything right and it should just get out of our lives. as they finger their medicaid cards and medicare cards, you know, they have them in their pockets or their purses. so, you know, i think that the federal government, as a concept, as sort of a movie monster, is going to be a theme that we're going to hear about. that's an idea that has caught hold and that, you know, if the democrats don't watch out, could dominate this election cycle. >> i think the point on that, too. i think that's absolutely right. i think it's also a protest vote. this law was about complaining that the feds were not doing their job. look. there is tremendous burden for the border states but a lot of people who believe in sensible reform saying, look. it can't be about securing the border has to be more against

government. >> guys, thanks so much. eugene, great column in "the post" today. david, thank you, as well. we'll see you "meet the press" live from the red carpet at the chelsea clinton after party. david and maria, billy bush. it is going to be amazing. >> debbie. >> blago. >> exactly. david have a great show. gene, thanks. still ahead, israeli defense minister ehud barack here on set. when we come back, an update on the big overnight news that robert gibbs alluded to. helen's bombshell announcement about her future with "american idol" and what it means for the midterm elections. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] if you've had a heart attack caused by a completely blocked artery,

another heart attack could be lurking, waiting to strike. a heart attack that's caused by a clot, one that could be fatal. but plavix helps save lives. plavix, taken with other heart medicines, goes beyond what other heart medicines do alone, to provide greater protection against heart attack or stroke and even death by helping to keep blood platelets from sticking together and forming dangerous clots. ask your doctor if plavix is right for you. protection that helps save lives. [ female announcer ] certain genetic factors and some medicines, such as prilosec, reduce the effect of plavix leaving you at greater risk for heart attack and stroke. your doctor may use genetic tests to determine treatment. don't stop taking plavix without talking to your doctor as your risk of heart attack or stroke may increase. people with stomach ulcers or conditions that cause bleeding should not use plavix. taking plavix alone or with some other medicines, including aspirin, may increase bleeding risk, so tell your doctor when planning surgery.

tell your doctor all medicines you take, including aspirin, especially if you've had a stroke. if fever, unexplained weakness or confusion develops, tell your doctor promptly. these may be signs of ttp, a rare but potentially life-threatening condition, reported sometimes less than 2 weeks after starting plavix. other rare but serious side effects may occur. when something's safe? you talk to these guys. they go through every car and truck we make with a big fat red pencil. because they know a family's going to be inside. a teenager. a guy on the way to the job. the engineers of chevrolet. just another reason why we can offer a 5-year 100,000 mile powertrain warranty. and another reason why a chevy's a chevy. our raise your rate cd gives you a great rate... ... and the opportunity to raise it to an even better rate... ... one time over the course of your term. try us at allybank.com.

and this one i'm taking to the house. the ice cream man is here! breyers all natural grasshopper pie. walmart's the only place you can get it. they love it when i take my work home with me. [ shaniya ] daddy i want more ice cream.

the world's first 100% custom, invisible, digital, and fully programmable hearing aid, loaded with today's most advanced hearing technologies, including our new sophisticated noise reduction system. this amazing new invisible hearing aid is custom made, allows you to talk comfortably on the phone, sounds natural. - the quality of sound is excellent, and yet they're, you know, the size of a thumbtack. announcer: to learn more, call: today. this would be a great opportunity to announce that i'm leaving after a year and a half of taking tough questions to be a judge on "american idol." >> is that right? >> yeah. >> we long suspected you couldn't get confirmed. >> willie, i do hope that no discernible music talent is held

against me. >> robert gibbs announcing right here to fill the now vacant seat at "american idol." >> big news. i thought j.lo was going to get it. >> robert gibbs, announcing. why is there an open seat? >> ellen degeneres is leaving and speculation, rumor galore to make wholesale changes in the judges and could see a j.lo/gibbs wholesale change. >> it could happen. overnight ellen degeneres announced she is leaving "american idol" after within season. she said, i'm out of here after one. it was a difficult decision to make but my work schedule became more than i bargained for and while i love discovering, supporting and nurturing young talent, it was hard for me to judge people and sometimes hurt their feelings. >> how many seasons chevy chase on "saturday night live"? how many seasons of farrah

fawcett on "charlie's angels"? >> i thought it was two seasons. >> what does that say about "way too early"? >> i should walk away. the huge moment last night came when jt quer si shore" returned for season two. they have headed down to south beach at least for the first episode. they shot it in the winter. you can't get a tan in new york or new jersey in the winter. to do the gym tanning laundry, you head to south beach. a road trip for snooki, the situation and pauly d and the weather. >> you can't get tan in this weather. you can't creep in this weather. you can't do anything. girls don't come out in this weather. they stay in the house. >> i'm happy to have a second shot. everybody in the world deserves a second shot. >> won't let a girl be catty in my house without getting her ass to be beat. >> you don't deserve here. you're a white rat and pasty. >> you're too tan.

i feel like a girl from the '20s washing right now. >> at the club hooking up with grenades, okay, that is a bigger ugly chick and then also land mines which is a thin ugly chick and loving life. >> did you get that? there's a grenade and then a land mine. grenade is heavy ugly chick. land mine is a thin ugly chick. >> pat clued me in on that. what's can't creep in the cold weather? >> cheeping is hitting on women in their lingo and in the northeast, women tend to stay indoors. harder to creep -- >> oh my god. awful. >> situation is creep me out. >> exactly. thank you. >> you should see pat get here this morning on his skateboard. he is down with everything. >> let me ask you this. how do i segue from this to -- israeli defense minister ehud barack standing by in the green

room. much more with nora, barnicle, pat and mark halperin when we come back. listen up, people, volkswagen is at it again with their autobahn for all event. it ends soon. they got great prices. cars built for the autobahn. people are gonna be driving crazy in the jetta... ...the routan, and the cc. that cc is gorgeous. that jetta is awesome. my wife loves her new routan. and they all come with that carefree maintenance. scheduled maintenance included. we're not shopping for cars here, people. c'mon! well, i am now. that's kind of exciting. [ male announcer ] right now, get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. or get a great price on a certified pre-owned volkswagen. get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. there's oil out there we've got to capture. my job is to hunt it down. i'm fred lemond, and i'm in charge of bp's efforts to remove oil from these waters. bp has taken full responsibility for the cleanup and that includes

keeping you informed. every morning, over 50 spotter planes and helicopters take off and search for the oil. we use satellite images, infrared and thermal photography to map and target the oil. then, the boats go to work. almost 6,000 vessels. these are thousands of local shrimp and fishing boats organized into task forces and strike teams. plus, specialized skimmers from around the world. we've skimmed over 27 million gallons of oil/water mixture and removed millions more with other methods. we've set out more than 8 million feet of boom to protect the shoreline. i grew up on the gulf coast and i love these waters. we can't keep all the oil from coming ashore, but i'm gonna do everything i can to stop it, and we'll be here as long as it takes to clean up the gulf.

welcome back to "morning joe." just after 8:00 in the morning here in new york city. i'm willie geist. joe and mika have the day off but i'm joined by mike barnicle,

nora o'donnell and mark halperin and now with us is ehud barak to meet with u.n. chief ban ki-moon. mr. barak, thank you for being here this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> a lot has been made over the last several months about perhaps strained relations between the united states and israel. some said that israel doesn't believe that president obama is a strong enough partner. how are the relations between our two countries? >> i think they are much better. the last visit of prime minister netanyahu was successful in his meeting with president obama. and i followed on with a secretary gates and general jones and many others. i think the relationship, especially with regard to defense, are extremely good. i searched the possibilities of

getting the -- basically the best air force for israel. discuss some other issues. the pentagon, under secretary gates making sure that israel is strong. in regard to the president, let me just say that i think that the arab perception of president obama is extremely even handed. it creates an opportunity and based on the situation in the middle east, there needs urgently a move toward peace. it's good and i believe that we should move forward into this conversation with the palestinians, full engines forward and try to achieve a peace. >> on that count, mr. prime minister, no stinking americans have a sense of israel's sense of your own security, but given that what would happen to the security of israel if you

stopped building the settlements immediately right now today? >> i don't think that that's the real issue. you know, i was a prime minister myself. i negotiated with arafat under the partnership of clinton. we were building four times the pace we had before the freeze. you know, we had negotiations and under president bush and olmert. we built twice the pace before the freeze. freeze is unprecedented step but -- two edges in one hand argue that's nothing. it doesn't count. they did not enter negotiation when we ordered the freeze and now they ask how come did you sop in i don't think that's the issue. there are issues on table. everyone knows how to be decided. it's tough, painful decisions for both sides but we need to

two-state solution and we believe we have a right from the bible, 2,000 year but time has come to divide the land of israel between israel as a jewish democratic state and a vibrant demilitarized palestinian state and side by side and time is made for decisions not maneuvering who's responsible for the failure but who make it work. >> i don't know if you saw, mr. minister, but the british prime minister david cameron called gaza a prison camp. what's your reaction to that? >> i don't see it's a prison camp. it's a place. we understand the suffering, the humanitarian of the gazans as human beings but under hamas for the last few -- unfortunately, hamas accumulates rockets and missiles and shot thousands of them over the heads of our population. i remember president obama as a candidate visiting the town --

stood besides him if he said my two daughters living here, i would have done whatever it takes to put an end to it. and i think that you should understand our responsibility. we have a primary contact with our citizens to protect them. and it means to be ready to stand against hamas. this morning when we are talking, a guard, a small bomb that can kill all of us if it would land here landed in the marina of a city. people are going just to the weekend to spend sometime with their kids. that's unacceptable to -- that's the reason why it's not a prison but we make sure that no one can come with rockets, munitions or war materials. of course, we allow everyone who comes with -- whatever biscuits, coffee -- >> fruit. >> bananas. >> berries or bananas.

they can come and be checked and go to the gaza strip. >> talked about a small threat today but there's a bigger threat of your country perceived from iran. how advanced is iran's nuclear program and what is israel prepared to do a threat from iran? >> iranians are determined to keep deterring the rest of the world, making a sophisticated dance. they move. they stop. they open. they close. they go two steps to the right and then once again forward, backward, whatever. they're determined to get nuclear military capability. we see it. now it's still time for sanctions. sanctions launched finally but they were somewhat dilluted to get a wider foreign support and then comes the better sanctions of the europeans and i hope it lasts, also, better. probably sanctions of america.

but we still have to wait. they're not yet there. the iranians but they're moving there and i don't believe that sanctions will work. and we have to bear it in mind responsibility's huge upon us. also upon you, not just a -- for israel. >> what are you advocating? >> we say all the way there should be an extremely effective sanctions. if they don't work, we recommended to our friends always not to remove any option from the table. we do the same for ourselves. >> but your answer on this question sounds as if you're not exactly inclined to pick up the telephone and call washington before you hit iran if, indeed, you ever did hit iran. >> i don't think that we have to discuss it in front of this camera but i think that the essence of it we still believe it's still time for sanctions,

to see whether they're working. but as i said, we have to realize -- we cannot wink in front of tough realities, however tough they might be. nuclear iran will be the end of any considerable regime of nonproliferation. it will ignite a nuclear waste. the pillar of countries of the region will have to turn nuclear. it will accelerate the countdown toward terrorist group put their hands on a weapon-grade material that some will in the future as president obama warned us. and it will coerce and intimidate members, arab countries around the gulf and still most of the oil -- japan and china is coming from. >> okay. syria, jordan, saudi arabia and egypt. describe your country's

relationships with those countries. >> i think that -- i'm -- we all share the understanding except for the syrians we share the understanding that real threat for the middle east, our radical muslim terror, the nuclear proliferation and potential drifting to terror groups and the intentions of iran. at the same time, of course, they seem differently than many israelis of the need to take risks to our security and in order to assure there's agreement with the palestinians. and we still, i believe, share certain hope that we will be able to take syria out of this radical axis and instead of moving towards a collision with them, make first serious end to the conflict. >> what do you know about the health of mr. mubarak?

>> i have great respect. the peace and i don't think that it's proper for me to, you know, to talk about his health. i hope it will be well and he will continue. >> but is egypt stable if he's not in office? >> i think egypt showed until now to be extremely stable country. we hope it will remain but in the -- you can predict first. i believe that it will be stable under whatever situation but i hope that me will be there for many years to come. >> just to bottom there, is there any reconsideration about extending the partial settlement freeze beyond the september deadline? >> i think we have -- we understand the problem that might occur if we reach the end of september without substantial intensive renegotiation.

>> right. >> it -- some believe it will be a test to israeli intentions and a tricky way they will be able to not move forward and throw the onus on israel and wait for the world to do something. >> you believe it helps negotiations? >> no. i believe the deadline doesn't help. i think that in a way it's something unfair happens here. we took unprecedented steps in these kind of a freeze and turns out to be -- >> a freeze to end. >> play against it. i don't say how exactly it will be solved. i think the real way to bypass it is to open now -- not end of the september, now, six weeks before the end of the september fully pledged negotiations. i believe that we can be deep -- so deep into negotiation of substantial issues that this whole issue of where exactly some building is started to

being built will seize to be the main issue on the radar. >> given the constant volatility of the region that you've described here this morning, what's your view on the united states' decision to invade iraq? did it make your country more stable, more safe, more secure? >> we are not a position to pass a move out of your nation's interest. i remember myself still in uniform as a high-ranking yen when bush, sr. ordered the liberation of -- reliberation of kuwait. even at a time wasn't clear why he's doing it. he could have done it only because saddam was not yet nuclear an gives you certain perspective of iran. think for a moment what could have happened if saddam would care to be -- with nuclear

devices, could bush, sr. order the liberation of kuwait? but the second, i think it was a response to perception about the taliban on one hand and iraq on the other hand. part of the wider deployment of osama bin laden and potential wmd which we now know were not there at the time. doesn't mean saddam did not have it at the open. i think that the first blow to them was justified and accepted well by everyone. there were gaps later on in understanding how to win things in the middle east. it is not that easy and simple. not just that you topple down the regime. then you had the tribal society with the infinite numbers of warlords, heads of tribe. you know, when you went in iraq, i told american friends, welcome to the 17th century a.c.

when you went to afghanistan, welcome to the 17th century b.c. tribal society, unbelievable. if a jewish rabbi parachuting in to a tribe, you get family debate about the widow that their husband left and killed. and he has to decide what to do with the kids. who's ready to -- who is supposed to marry? he would without any preparation be able to pass a judgment there exactly living by the words of the biblical tribes. >> tell me this if you can. israeli intelligence known to be very sophisticated and very good at what they do around the world. where do you figure osama bin laden is? >> we're short of perfect. you're short of perfect. i remember still some prominent palestinian terrorist, which killed hundreds of -- tens of

dozens or sol times more than hundred israel. we went after them for eight years. in area as small as i know the whole -- the whole -- we couldn't find them. when we were in the area. not behind the mountainous region. 15,000 feet. and it's not easy. these are sophisticated people. they're reading all our newspaper. they are identifying -- analyzing every leak. and they make sure that they will protect themselves against anything they know we can use. i hope that finally he will be found and now we should be careful when we generate those guys. you know? we were behind the decision that led to the emergents of hamas in gaza bringing fatah.

we were some 25 years ago summoning directly part of the chain of closings that led to the establishment of his bell lo. he meant that some americans he believe ed were involved in training against them. it's a complicated issue. we should be open eyed but direct, directing grip with details. world decided not just by strategic clarity but understanding of details. >> you talked about improvement of relations between israeli and our government. a lot of american jews distrust president obama. a lot of your citizens distrust him. speak to your view of him being a defender of israeli and someone jews and israelis can trust as much as, say, george bush. >> no. i think that we should bear in

mind different countries, america did not elect a kanesset. israel did not vote for either candidate in presidency. we have obama. we should -- we respect the choice of the american people. i think that any president, this president is basic on the profound level. friendly to the cause of israel. sit heavy and profound basis of shared values and tradition, all presidents, i remember rabin come to power and wonder when clinton came to power, rabin wonders will it be good or probably better with bush, sr. we already know him and everyone. ended up with a great cooperation. i remember when bush jr. came. people say, oh, it's a son of

bush, sr. probably it will be -- no. he became very friendly. and even obama did basic american policy. didn't change since rogers. you know? it's a two for two, three for eight, minor modifications around the borders and the two-state solution. it didn't change. the president supported it. i don't envy for the amount of issues he has to deal with from afghanistan, pakistan and iraq, iran. russia. china. you name it. missile defense. and we have our problem. and we believe that the very perception that through a synergies of interest between us, moderate arabs as you mentioned and the need to make peace with palestinians, i believe, also with the syrians, with the libyans, with the whole region, we found a common ground.

i always remember president of israel, before you were born probably, at camp david with carter. there was no love lost there. but they were like -- fire in -- i don't know. but they were convinced that it's time to live in history and more important than any president. not about love affair but changing history for the better and it is really a juncture where we have history have to choose. history or politics and with the proper reality check, i choose history. >> you don't like rahm emanuel, like? >> i like him or not? yesterday give me a good bottle of beer. he's the only guy to have -- >> in the white house. >> now, that's diplomacy. >> i think he left very good impression on the israeli

public. rahm emanuel when he visited -- >> yeah. >> for the son's bar mitsvah. >> thank you before being here. >> pray for the better it will work. >> always do. coming up next, a hot topic bill voted down in the house triggering a passionate response on the floor of the house. we'll show you what had congressman anthony weiner of new york fired up yesterday. that's next. little bit later, the top three stories that made this a week to remember. don't miss the week in review. first here's bill karins with a quick check on the weekend forecast. >> can't wait for the flip of the fish in the soccer game. now the weather forecast. airports are just fine on this friday. we are not expecting any significant problems in the air or if you're traveling today. a gorgeous day. probably one of the best days seen this summer. low humidity, low temperatures and sunshine boston to pittsburgh and everywhere in between. look at d.c. for the first time all summer we are not going back

up into the 90s with a heat wave. watching for a chance of rain for a first time in a long time. sunday afternoon with some storms chance. heat wave from the east coast to the middle of the nation. watch dallas. we do 100 today and tomorrow and then by sunday we could be near 105. so it's not one spot, it's another. you're watching "morning joe." have a wonderful weekend. hey guys, i got some more savings for ya, and this one i'm taking to the house. the ice cream man is here! breyers all natural grasshopper pie. walmart's the only place you can get it. they love it when i take my work home with me. [ shaniya ] daddy i want more ice cream. thanks martha -- triggered my stop loss orders... saved me a pantload. [ crying ] oh great. every time i fly.

my ears! swallow! [ male announcer ] upgrade to first class investing technology... at e-trade. my sunglasses. ♪ people say i'm forgetful. maybe that's why we go to so many memorable places. love the road you're on. the subaru outback. motor trend's 2010 sport/utility of the year.

the world's first 100% custom, invisible, digital, and fully programmable hearing aid, loaded with today's most advanced hearing technologies, including our new sophisticated noise reduction system. this amazing new invisible hearing aid is custom made, allows you to talk comfortably on the phone, sounds natural. - the quality of sound is excellent, and yet they're, you know, the size of a thumbtack. announcer: to learn more, call:

welcome back to "morning joe." it's 8:25 in the morning. i'm willie geist. joe and mika have the day off and fortunate to be joined by the great nora o'donnell. >> good morning. with us now chief political correspondent of politico michamike allen. anthony weiner, just got back from married and hoy eiey eied n and funding for 9/11 first responders. let's just watch him on the flor. >> we see in it united states senate every single day where members say we want amendments, debate, amendment, still a no. and then we stand up and say, oh, if only i had a different process, we'd vote yes. you vote yes if you believe yes.

you vote yes if you believe you it's the right thing. we are following up procedure. i will not yield to the government. regular order. it is a shame, a shame! if you believe this is a bad idea to provide health care, then vote no! but don't give me the cowardly view that, oh, if it was a different procedure. the gentleman will observe regular order and sit down! instead of standing up and defending your colleagues and voting no on this humane bill, you should urge them to vote yes. something the gentleman has not done! >> fired up. sometimes willie's like that right before "way too early." i see him screaming like that. but this is serious, mike, because it is about 9/11 responders and aid to them. what was sort of the procedural dust-up that went on. >> yeah. this is become a huge deal on the left because what you'll hear democrats saying is this is the time that republicans took

obstruction one step too far. you can't deny the sort of aid to first responders, people who were at ground zero. what congressman weiner was talking about there is there would have been a simple majority of republicans to vote for this. 12 republicans actually voted for it. but house brought it up under something that required a two thirds vote. the reason for that was that you can't add amendments. republicans wanted to add amendments such as denying this aid to illegal immigrants. well, democrats going into november, of course, don't want to vote like that. so they put a little straight jacket around this bill by requiring the two thirds didn't come quite that far. now, there's still a potential court settlement that could take care of this but this is a problem for republicans because you have mayor bloomberg calling this an outrage. >> nora, congressman weiner on msnbc this morning at the 10:00 hour and talking to him here on "morning joe" on monday. can't wait to dig into it with

him. >> mike, charlie crist, of course, reporting about this. running as independent but his staff quite a run the gamut. >> they do. charlie crist that started the race behind becoming an independent, people thought, oh, his money and support will crater and brought in the unusual staff including having his sister in the role of campaign manager. but what we see is charlie crist doing very well. mark halperin said from the beginning he would be the front-runner and there's a quinnipiac poll showing that governor crist, in fact, is in cold frontible lead. now, one of the big reasons for this is because of the way handling the bp oil spill. what republicans are hoping is that as that gets resolved that a support will fall and mark rubio will get a chance to ride up against but politico's mark

masters say it's going to be a big story in florida. bp works out the settlements and governor crist will be in the spotlight. mark halperin saying that he needs a second act. he stayed the candidate of the conservative base. he needs to broaden out. he needs to show he's ready for prime time. not just a rookie statewide candidate. >> mark, do the numbers hold for charlie crist? >> they've held consistently. this is five or six public polls showing this. again, there's confusion of who the democratic nominee is going to be. i think it is clear for a while that the white house thinks their best hope for having this seat in democratic hands is charlie crist and while they have had to help congressman meeks somewhat, i don't think their heart is in it. rubio has to find a way to not just define crist but define himself and reach out to voters in southern florida and central florida to have a chance. >> a fun race to watch. mike allen, thanks so much. have a great weekend. next here, erin's top three

business head leans including breaking news on new gdp numbers. [ whistling ] [ dog barking ] [ sniffing ] [ male announcer ] missing something? like 2 pairs of glasses for $99.99 at sears optical.

now includes bifocals at the same great price for a limited time. hurry in to sears optical today and don't miss a thing. with their autobahn for all event. it ends soon. they got great prices. cars built for the autobahn. people are gonna be driving crazy in the jetta... ...the routan, and the cc. that cc is gorgeous. that jetta is awesome. my wife loves her new routan. and they all come with that carefree maintenance. scheduled maintenance included. we're not shopping for cars here, people. c'mon! well, i am now. that's kind of exciting. [ male announcer ] right now,

get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi. or get a great price on a certified pre-owned volkswagen.

all right. it is time. you have been waiting all morning for erin's top three. we begin with some breaking

news. erin, what are you looking senate. >> all right, willie. we have breaking news. the data everybody's waiting for all week. talking about how fast the u.s. economy grew in the second quarter. here's the thing. not as fast as you would hope. 2.4% was how quickly the u.s. economy expanded. that is weaker than had been expected which was 2.5% but most important economists cutting this forecast for a while so chafb cutting, cutting and came in even below that and follows the growth in the first quarter of 2.7% and final quarter of last year, 5.6% and seeing the recovery slow down. weakest pace of growth in about a year. on top of that, willie, they come out with a periodically revise growth for the u.s. economy. done that for three years and every single year it came out much weaker than had been expected. in fact, last year now saying the weakest economy for the u.s. since 1946. but again, that's backward looking.

here you are and weaker, companies were really the reason for that, not investing as much as people hoped and saw the market double the losses on the become of that headline. >> erin, tells us recession worse than we've been snoeld. >> yes. recession is worse than we were told and recovery not as sharply up as we had hoped. basically the way to look at this. so that's a big headline on that front, willie. >> all right. number two ♪ number two >> loop de loo. you know, all right, here's this guy. li lu. learn his face and reason, interesting report today in "wall street journal" this man born in china, parents put in labor camps in the cultural revolution, may be the success so of managing warren buffett's money. he had about $100 billion portfolio and this guy 44 years old, the front-runner and his current number two, he says he

thinks it's a foregone conclusion. >> wow. who is this guy? what's the deal? >> born in china, basically shuttered between foster families while parents put in forced labor camps. escaped to france and then came to the united states and he's the one responsible for one of warren buffett most famous recent investments. byd. he got warren buffett into it, one of the best performing investments. >> that will do it. >> interesting story. >> all right. we'll remember that face. what about number one to end the week? ♪ number one >> what's it say there, willie? >> willie's "morning joe" with beer. hmm. >> well, you know -- >> what are you driving at? >> it's a friday. try this instead of your regular cup of joe. before you get too worried about did economy going into a tail spin, there is a beer out there, 60% alcohol by volume. it's called start the future. >> wow. >> and because i know you were on the big bucks and you can help save the economy.

you can buy a one third liter bottle for $45. >> wow. 60% alcohol. that's jet fuel where i come from. that is not beer. >> previous record holder for alcohol content in beer was 55% and that beer was called the end of the history. but this one's 60% so the future. >> what's it called one more time? >> start the future. go order it right now. >> start the future, done. i'll start my weekend with start the future. thanks so much. have a great weekend. >> bye, guys. up next, the all-star panel in new edition of the "morning joe" midterm exam next. [ female announcer ] it's crabfest at red lobster.

the best time to crack it... twirl it... dunk it... and discover more new ways than ever to enjoy crab. like our new crab lover's trio with crab-stuffed shrimp, and succulent north pacific king and snow crab legs. or our decadent crab and shrimp pasta. new crab creations for every craving, starting at $14.99, only during crabfest. right now at red lobster.

i am going to comment on what we did do to drain the swamp. the swamp was described in the press as a criminal syndicate operating out of the republican leader's office. and what we did when we came in was to implement the toughest

ethics reform in a generation. this was a terrible place. and we have made a tremendous difference and i take away pride in this. >> she is like elliott ness messing up the criminal syndicate. time in the "morning joe" midterm exam. today's topic is 2010 the year of the moderates? we sat down with pat buchanan, gene robinson and chuck todd to break it down. >> if the election were held today, i know everyone hates this, pat buchanan, how many seats in the house would the republicans pick up? >> i'm not the huge optimist. i think 34. >> that's actually where i am. i think right now, there are 34 or 35 because they're national organization hasn't shown strength in the specials. queen? >> 35, 36. >> look. >> still a believer in there. >> republicans win them both or they don't win either. they win both the house and the senate. this thing goes to 45, 50 seats

and 10 in the senate or neither one happen. i tell you right now. these fund raising numbers and house republican candidates are atrocious. i'm very surprised. you think money follows conventional wisdom normally. republicans, senate candidates doing better on money than house candidates and a big problem at the end maybe. >> i think the republican identification we are talking about on "morning joe" a number of times, down as low as it is, that's a bit of a drag. people don't want the democratic party. they want to find a way to throw the guys out and looking over here. i think -- >> already here. >> charlie crist. >> yeah. >> joe, give your predictions. don't you think to an extent voters are at a loss right now and that it could be a little bit less predictable? >> i think they're at a loss right now and i agree with chuck. i always go back and it's my point of reference because it's the first time i followed an election really closely. but i always go back to what

happened in 1980. i remember reading "time" magazine on friday saying it's a toss-up between carter and reagan and then over the weekend i remember getting the news that jimmy carter and rosalind cried on the air force one sunday night after they saw the internal polls. i saw what happened in '94. i was -- chuck, you were covering it in '94. >> yep. >> i walked up to -- i won. 62%. real shock. supposed to be a 50/50 race. on friday, the last poll showed 50/50. somebody shouted, we took over the house! and i said, you mean the senate. they said, no. they said -- i was like trying -- i said, we took over the senate! somebody grabbed me and pointed to the nbc screen. i think you are right. i think that weekend, that final weekend, either americans are going to say we don't trust the

republicans but we loathe the democrats. >> i'll say this. one thing, be careful of handicapping senate races in states where there's governor's races going on and competitive governor's races going on and i bring this up for this point. it is rare locking at the midterms that a senate race, a competitive senate race goes in the opposite direction of the competitive governor's race. thif a way -- governor's races drive turnout. senate races do not. we cover senate races. the public follows the governor race in a local state. >> let's -- >> when they're handicapping senate race, look for a governor's race on that ballot in that state. >> in california, right now, you have two. talk about two senate races that should be safely democratic right now. they may end up safely democratic. california. >> uh-huh. >> and washington state. are patty murray and barbara boxer in trouble? >> you know, well, are they in

trouble? i think they'll both pull it out. i think they'll both win. these are closer races than would have been expected because of the economy. >> why? >> because -- look at the state of california. would mood would california voters be in? do you think? >> pat? >> let's follow the chuck todd rule. the governor's race in california is a big one. whitman's got all that money and she'll be driving and jerry brown slipped a bit. running about even, i guess. if she runs strong, boxer's never run really strong and i think there's a chance carlie fiorino wents this. >> boxer, clinton's tail lals and then the gray davis landslide. she had kerry on the presidential ballot. she's never have run when the top of the ticket was not strong. and jerry brown may win but he's

not going to be strong. this is a -- because meg whitman is spending gajillions. >> don't underestimate jerry brown. >> that i agree with. barbara boxer, whether she likes it or not, the chances are so tied to jerry brown getting up off the mat. this guy letting whitman define this race early. it's been one of the more poorly run -- i expected jerry to run a better race. >> i thought jerry brown would win this thing. >> he might. >> she's doing well and brown's not run a good race. >> great discussion. thanks to our panel. more "morning joe" when we come back. hey guys, i got some more savings for ya,

and this one i'm taking to the house. the ice cream man is here! breyers all natural grasshopper pie. walmart's the only place you can get it. they love it when i take my work home with me. [ shaniya ] daddy i want more ice cream.

yes, another heavy week of news in this country but in the interest of good times, we have chosen to ignore all that. in our top three stories of the week. >> the 44th president of the united states, barack obama. >> at number three, girl talk. >> look. i was trying to find a show that michelle actually watched. >> president obama sat down with this week with the ladies of "the view" going against the advice of long-time trusted adviser pat buchanan. >> why not go up on stage with

lady gaga again get the youth vote? >> described as a historic event, the president faced the semi circular firing squad of whoopi, babes, joy, sherry and hasselbe hasselbeck. >> what's the first couple of songs on your ipod? >> does mel gibson need anger management. >> do you tweet? >> should snooki run as the ambassador -- >> displaying a firm grasp of the issues that affect americans most. >> do you know that lindsay lohan is in jail? >> i actually know that, yes. >> at number two, the greatest celebration in the history of organized human games. >> in a week when the nfl's two best secelebrators joined force a team in iceland set a new gold standard. everyone's favorite icelandic

soccer star playing for everyone's favorite icelandic soccer club scored on a penalty kick setting off a choreographed fishing theme celebration that began with him casting the line for a big one and ended with the team taking a group photo with his catch. and the number one story of the week, they're back. >> can't get tan in this weather. you can't creep in this weather. you can't do anything. >> you're too tan. disgusting. >> i like being tan! >> my bronzer is leaking off my face. >> you want to go outside where [ bleep ] go the [ bleep ] outside. >> grenades, a bigger ugly chick. and then also, land mines which is a thin ugly chick. >> "jersey shore" returned for a second season for gym tanning and laundry and the cherry on top of a week where the cast rang the opening bell at the new york stock exchange, where

"newsweek" dubbed the gang america's new icons. >> actually, no. i'll put you in the same category. >> actually, you should shut your [ bleep ] mouth. >> we don't have enough problems in new jersey? i need snooki and the situation? i have enough problems. >> a week where snooki profiled in "the new york times" and, indeed, mentioned by the president of the united states. >> somebody asked me who snooki was. i say, i don't know who snooki is. >> with leaked documents of the afghanistan war, a fight over immigration law in arizona, and an anxious nation awaiting the fate of its hero and spiritual leader in chicago, "jersey shore" was just the bronzed, brawling tonic that america needed. >> because obama put a 10% tax on tanning. i feel like he did that intentionally for us. >> yes. snooki and "the jersey shore" like a palette cleanser at the

end of a long week. stick around for "the ldaily rundown." to be fiber. they're delicious crunchy clusters with sweet honey and half a day's worth of fiber. you care about my fiber? not really. [ male announcer ] fiber one. with their autobahn for all event. it ends soon. they got great prices. cars built for the autobahn. people are gonna be driving crazy in the jetta... ...the routan, and the cc. that cc is gorgeous. that jetta is awesome. my wife loves her new routan. and they all come with that carefree maintenance. scheduled maintenance included. we're not shopping for cars here, people. c'mon! well, i am now. that's kind of exciting. [ male announcer ] right now, get 0% apr on 2010 models, excluding tdi.

or get a great price on a certified pre-owned volkswagen.

this would be a great opportunity to announce that i'm leaving after a year and a half of taking tough questions to be a judge on "american idol." >> is that right? >> yeah. >> we long suspected you couldn't get confirmed. we appreciate you announcing it here. >> i hope that no discernible

music talent is not held against me. >> tell you, that's something we learned today. >> now what i learned, j.lo going to get the post. >> that's right. pat buchanan calling it right now on "american idol." really nobody's more plugged in to what's happening in hollywood. >> the other nickname. >> jennifer of something or other. >> jenny from the block. >> jenny from the what? >> the block, the block she grew up in the bronx. nora, what did you learn? >> since we're going there, i learned what creeping -- >> from jt jersey shore." could you use it in a shore? >> the boys were creeping for girls this weekend. is that kind of right? >> creep during winter very well. >> that's right. >> is that right? >> that's right. as you learned from pauly d, women stay inside. they don't go to the clubs in winter and can't creep. pat